In fact, the recording of this event, though not exactly proof, is strong evidence that it did in fact happen. Why would the gospel writers invent events out of nothing, when many eye-witnesses were still around who could either confirm or deny facts–especially ones so rememberable as the killings of the children by Herod. People can say what they will, and they can speculate as they like, but it seems to me extremely unlikely that the author of Matthew would simply make up the event–to tell a lie–in order to “prove” the connection between Jesus and Moses. To tell such a lie would NOT lend credence to Jesus Christ, to say the least. It would destroy any credibility to the other events recorded in Matthew. Clearly, Matthew believed in the type/antitype relationship between Moses and Jesus. If he believed in this, then why would he create fake stories to back up what he clearly believed? No, this theory makes no sense at all.
John Oakes